The World Bank has promised Russia a sharp decline in GDP.

KommentariiEkonomika dual dnom23.03.2009Pravitelstvo hurried to "withdraw" from Russia krizisaSokraschenie Russia's GDP in 2009 will be 4.5 percent, Interfax reports with reference to the World Bank. However, in 2010, economic growth will be zero. For comparison, a reduction in the euro area economy, according to forecast the European Central Bank, this year ranging from 2.2 to 3.2 per cent. The recession the world economy will be 1.7 percent.
One of the main causes of decline of Russia's GDP, the World Bank refers to a sharp decline in domestic demand, as well as the general deterioration in the economy. In addition, the slowdown in GDP will also be associated with a decline in oil prices. Average Urals oil price in 2009 is estimated by the World Bank, will be 45 dollars per barrel, while in 2010-m - 45-48 dollars a barrel.
The deficit of the federal budget of Russia in 2010 could reach six per cent of GDP. According to the World Bank's Chief Economist for Russia Zeljko Bogeticha planned by the government of the country's budget deficit of 7.4 percent of GDP was "fairly realistic assessment." Recall that the power deficit will be met from the contingency fund.
According to the Bank, the budget deficit within the limits of 6-7,4 per cent could be funded from the contingency fund, which, according to the March 1, 2009, amounted to 4.9 trillion rubles. "Without Russia reserves would have to borrow, while the domestic market is very stringent, and in the external market is difficult to borrow, - Bogetich said, adding that the country has no restrictions on external borrowing because its debt is not great.
The inflation rate for the year will reach 11-13 percent. This will help in increasing prices for imported goods. On the other hand, the World Bank believe that the slowdown in economic growth, tight monetary policy of the monetary authorities of Russia and the outflow of foreign capital will contribute to slowing growth in consumer prices.
Net outflows of foreign capital from Russia in the current year amount to 170 billion dollars. In 2010, he slowed to 90-100 billion dollars. For comparison, last year the figure stood at 130 billion dollars. According to Bogeticha, capital outflows will be linked to the fact that Russian banks in 2009 should be returned to foreign creditors of 90 billion dollars. This inflow of foreign direct investment is virtually zero.
Unemployment in Russia in 2009 will continue to grow and by the end of the year was 12 per cent against 6.3 per cent last year. In January this year the figure was 8.1 percent in February - 8.5 percent. The World Bank estimates that the number of officially registered unemployed in 2009 will grow to 2.7 million.
The level of poverty, The World Bank in 2009 to rise to 15.5 percent from 12.7 percent a year earlier. For comparison, in 2008 the number of poor in Russia grew by 1.1 million people. In 2009, they will be more on the 4.7 million people. During the 1998 crisis, the number of poor countries was almost 30 per cent.
The amount of anti-crisis measures the Government of Russia has already exceeded two per cent of GDP. In most of the measures aimed at stimulating the financial and real sectors of the economy. Now the authorities need to focus on supporting the social sphere. According to World Bank economists, the Government needs to develop a package of social protection, support infrastructure, small and medium-sized businesses. The realization of these measures may require an additional 1.5 percent of GDP.
According to the World Bank support for social workers should include increasing child benefits of 220 percent, unemployment at 70 percent, and pension payments to 30 per cent of pensioners by 20 per cent. The program should begin to be implemented from 1 April 2009, and by 1 April 2010 it will cease to operate because the economic recovery begins. The Government of Russia, according to Bogeticha can afford to implement these measures.