The Central Bank has raised the forecast for the economic decline in Russia.

KommentariiVolny on dne25.03.2009Aleksey Kudrin warned on new wave of bank krizisaSokraschenie of Russia's GDP in 2009 may exceed the official forecast of 2.2 percent. The statement was made first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexey Ulyukaev, reports RIA Novosti. "There is reason to believe that there will be several more, and the rate of growth of bad debts will increase", - said Ulyukaev. In doing so, he said, Russia has already passed the critical phase of economic crisis.
Earlier, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Elvira Nabiullina announced that in January and February of this year Russia's GDP fell by eight percent over the same period a year earlier. In January decline of 8.8 percent in February - 7.3 percent. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in the first quarter of 2009, Russia's economy will decline by seven percent.
According to Nabiullina, Russia's economic slowdown would reduce demand for industrial goods, as well as deteriorating conditions in the banking sector.
Ulyukaev also said that the Russian banking system in 2009 did not face a loss. Such difficulties may arise only in some Russian banks. Nevertheless, the system may begin to incur losses if the bad loans exceed 10 percent. According to the Central Bank, this level of arrears reaches only the end of 2009.
March 26, 2009 the Minister of Finance of Russia Alexey Kudrin has declared that the level of overdue loans in Russia is around 10 per cent. The Minister noted that the evaluation of its agencies at odds with the official assessment, because the banks are trying to hide the real figures for the delay. According to the Central Bank on 1 March 2009, the debt of companies for loans was 3.1 percent, and individuals - 4.1 percent.
In mid-March this year, Kudrin warned that Russia may face a second wave of banking crises. This would involve a sharp rise in overdue loans, as the company's debtors face a shortage of funds. When it starts the crisis, Kudrin did not specify. Ministry of Economic Development expects that the new banks will begin to experience difficulties in autumn this year.